Census results reveal that in the United States 80% of the daughters of working women work and that 30% of the daughters of nonworking women work.


a. Write the transition probability for this model.

b. In the long run what fraction of women will be working

Respuesta :

Answer:

A) 0.8 0.2

0.3 0.7

B) 60%

Step-by-step explanation:

Solution Let X0, X1, X2, . . .be random variables representing a “typical" maternal lineage, such that

Xk =(1 if the k-th generation is

working,

(2 if the k-th generation is no

working.

Then{X0, X1, X2, . . .}is a Markov chain with the transition matrix

0.8 0.2

0.3 0.7

It is irreducible and its stationary distribution is π= (0.6,0.4)

By Theorem 8,

limn→∞P(Xn= 1|X0= 1) =limn→∞p1,1(n) = 0.6,

limn→∞P(Xn= 1|X0= 2)=limn→∞p2,1(n) = 0.6.

Thus no matter what the distribution of X0 is,

limn→∞P(Xn= 1) = 0.6

and then in the long run, 60% of women will be working